50K tomorrow. Looks like the weather is going to cooperate. Race conditions should be 40 degrees, sunny and only 8 MPH winds.
Having never run anything longer than a marathon I am not exactly sure what sort of results to expect. Therefore I am stuck with several goals.
First, some background. This is the worlds flattest 50K. Pancake flat. 3 out-and-back loops along the lake. Kinda boring, but a good way to jump into the ultra-marathon world. Previous recent winners of the race have been in the range of 3:12-3:40.
Goal A: Time of 3:20 = 6:27 pace. I highly doubt that I will achieve this. Why? Because I don't really want to start out quite that fast and I would end up having to do a negative split race, something that I don't really see happening. More likely I am shooting for a 3:22-3:23. I think this is a legitimate goal based on recent long runs of 22 and 24 miles at 6:29 and 6:42 paces. The other slight problem with this goal is that I intend to go out with whoever wants to lead this race. I don't really want to take off solo unless I have to. This could result in a somewhat faster or slower pace.
Goal B: 3:30 = 6:46 pace. This would be a nice finishing time on a day that didn't go exactly as planned. Assuming a goal pace on the first 2 loops I could do the third loop at about 7:30 pace. I would still be happy with this.
Goal C: 3:40. As slow as I could go without experiencing absolute disaster. Disaster is always possible, especially considering that I have no idea how my body will react to those last miles.
For completeness I should summarize my recent training. Over the last 12 weeks I have averaged about 70 miles week. I have done long runs of 14, 16, 18, 20, 20, 22, 24 and 20 miles. Verly little speedwork thanks to an unhappy hamstring, only about 6 tempo runs in the 3-4 miles ranges with a couple other random workouts. Incidentally the hamstring feels perfect now, but I expect to reinjure it during the race. Short taper 75, 60 and 15 miles for the last 3 weeks.
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